Balungu Daniel Musafiri, Postgraduate student, Assistant Basic Department of Big Data Analytics and Video Analysis Methods, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin
Licin Vladislav Vladimirovich, Student, Basic Department of Big Data Analytics and Video Analysis Methods, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin
Abstract
This study presents the concept of a digital twin for modeling material flows in the economy of a municipality. A simplified agent-based model that reproduces the movement of goods and services between key participants in the economic system (households, enterprises of various industries, and local governments) has been developed. The research is based on a scenario analysis that includes three areas: fiscal policy, crisis situations, and infrastructure projects. The simulation results revealed a nonlinear relationship between the tax burden and budget revenues and also demonstrated the effect of sectoral asymmetry (different industry responses to identical management impacts). The scientific novelty of the work lies in the development of a methodology for integrating agent-based modeling with the concept of digital twins for municipal management tasks. The practical significance is confirmed by the conclusions about the critical 6-month period for the implementation of anti-crisis measures and the identified budget payback of logistics projects (3.2 years). The model allows predicting the consequences of management decisions, taking into account the spatial distribution of economic activity, intersectoral relationships, and adaptive behavior of economic agents. The obtained results can be used to optimize municipal economic policy and develop socio-economic development programs.
KEYWORDS: digital twin, agent-based modeling, municipal economy, NetLogo, scenario analysis, material flows.
Download article AGENT-BASED MODELING OF MATERIAL FLOWS IN THE ECONOMY OF THE MUNICIPALITY: A DIGITAL TWIN CONCEPT
