Yushkin Vladislav Nikolaevich, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Volgograd State Agrarian University
Abstract
The paper presents a model for predicting the results of sports competitions based on the application of the Poisson distribution and adapted for the analysis of hockey matches. The model was developed as part of the management of organizational systems and is aimed at improving the accuracy of predictions of the outcomes of sporting events by using statistical data on past performances of teams. The main research tool is the probabilistic approach, which allows taking into account not only the quantitative indicators of goals scored and conceded by each team, but also factors such as home advantage, as well as the relative strength of the attack and defense of the competitors. The analysis was carried out on the basis of retrospective statistics of hockey matches, including data on the results of games played both on the home court and away. The developed model can be used as a decision support tool in the management of sports organizations, including tournament planning, rating formation, team performance analysis and preparation of strategic actions to increase competitiveness. The results obtained can be used in automated forecasting systems, as well as in the analytical departments of professional sports clubs and federations.
KEYWORDS: forecasting model, organizational systems, management, decision-making in conditions of uncertainty.
Download article COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF RATING SYSTEMS AND THEIR APPLICATION IN MACRO-TOURNAMENT MANAGEMENT
